PowerSuite currently makes predictions for all state legislatures and US Congressional bills.
As soon as a bill is introduced, PowerSuite provides a real-time forecast of its likelihood of being enacted, helping advocates focus their efforts on bills with the greatest chances of success, as well as improving the prospects of bills that face an uphill climb. You can view bill details, partisan context, and forecast at a glance. View a recent webinar to see some real world examples.
Access for AEE members and PowerSuite Pro subscribers only
PowerSuite bill forecasts are only available to AEE members or PowerSuite Pro subscribers.
If you would like to see it live please contact us about our special limited duration trial.
Using Legislative forecasts to sort your search results
You can sort any bill search using the latest bill forecast. Look for the "sort by" menu when running a search:
You can also view a quick glance forecast in bill search results:
Bill forecast technical details
By identifying and analyzing predictive variables about state legislative activity, including bill topics, sponsors, legislative history and partisan characteristics, PowerSuite can forecast the outcome of state and federal bills with an accuracy of 87 percent based on information available at the time of bill filing, and up to 99.5 percent as legislative action changes the probability of passage over the course of a session.
As soon as a bill is introduced, PowerSuite provides a real-time forecast of its likelihood of being enacted. This helps advocates focus their efforts on bills with the greatest chances of success, and improves the prospects of bills that face an uphill climb.
Prediction accuracy explained
Our overall average accuracy in 2016, for correctly predicting the outcome of legislation, was 87%.
At the extremes in the figure above, our model is very accurate. Nearly half of all 2016 bills fall into the 0-5 or 95-100 probability ranges, where we see over 95% accuracy in predicting the outcome of legislation.
In the middle range of probability, the number of bills is far smaller, and the final result more variable. In 2016, ~30,000 bills, or about a quarter of all pending legislation, scored between 25% and 75% probability of passing at the time of filing. These bills were, in essence, “toss ups” - and particularly subject to small changes that can have a big impact on whether the bill gets enacted. It is here we see a number of bills enacted that had initial scores below 50%, and a somewhat higher number of bills in the “somewhat likely to be enacted” category that did not win approval.
While the legislative process will always have more than its share of upsets and surprises, we are working continuously to improve our predictive modeling to factor in even the smallest changes in a bills positioning.
Please contact us if you want to discuss our bill prediction system in more detail.